Archive forNovember, 2014

Book Review: The Pillars Of Finance

The Pillars of Finance: The Misalignment of Finance Theory and Investment Practice. By Guy Fraser-Sampson. Palgrave Macmillan, 2014; 260 pages

Guy Fraser-Sampsons new book argues Modern Portfolio Theory fails to capture the real nature of risk. Better methods have long been available, but MPT is dogma to academia and industry.

In the early 20th century Frank Knight, Ludwig von Mises, and John Maynard Keynes shaped the concept of risk. These economists depicted risk as a quality of assets that cannot be measured, but it nonetheless has to be addressed by managers and academics alike.

Their ideas were influential until the post-war period, when they were supplanted by the work of Harry Markowitz, a graduate student at the University of Chicago. In 1952, Markowitz changed how finance professors and professionals view risk with his article, Portfolio Selection in The Journal of Finance.

Markowitzs view of risk as volatility forms the foundation of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). Its working definition of risk, expressed as E-V, the expected returns – variance of returns rule, occupies the commanding heights of both theory and practice in academia and the industry. So influential were these ideas that Markowitz was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1990.

Quantifying the heart

Markowitzs concern was that the discounting methods with which Knight, von Mises, and Keynes were familiar did not address risk quantitatively. If it cannot be calculated, it cannot be risk, he thought. In the paper, he illustrate(s) geometrically relations between beliefs and choice.

Deriving objective equations from fixed probability beliefs, in part subjective, Markowitz showed that risk not only can be quantified, but can be done so easily and precisely. At the time, no one thought this strange. He theorized that risk is best understood as the difference between expected return and actual return, the volatility of returns as measured by variance.

Markowitzs parameters are the mean (the expected return) and the standard deviation, so actual returns are distributed normally. In MPT, risk is identical to variance. If the termhellip; risk (were replaced) by variance of return, little change of apparent meaning would result, Markowitz wrote.

At odds with himself

Though his parameters are those of the normal distribution, Markowitz wrote, The presumption that the law of large numbers applies to a portfolio of securities cannot be accepted. He did not explore the implications of this statement for his theory.

There are, on occasion, attempts to challenge the risk as volatility concept – such as Benoit Mandelbrots The (mis)Behavior of Markets (2004) – but none have successfully breached the battements the world of finance has erected around MPT.

In a new book, The Pillars of Finance, Guy Fraser-Sampson leads a direct assault against formidable Fort Markowitz. Fraser-Sampson, a Visiting Lecturer at the Cass Business School, City University London, is determined to lay siege to MPT, though a flanking maneuver may have been the wiser approach.

Subjective risk

To Fraser-Sampson, risk is a subjective measure defined by individual investors according to their needs. What an investor really needs to know, Fraser-Sampson writes, ishellip; the risk (an asset) may fail to meet the investors objective of discharging future liabilities. Fraser-Sampson argues describing risk in terms of the normal distribution is meaningless. He stresses risks qualitative character over its quantitative nature and defies MPTs proposition that one measure of risk is appropriate to all investors.

Fraser-Sampson goes further. He proposes a return to the basics: Time Value of Money, Net Present Value, and Internal Rate of Return. He points out the calculation of periodic returns, used to calculate standard deviation, ignores cash flows, the basis of asset valuation. IRR is a better method of calculating equity returns. It captures cash flows and takes into account the time value of money. Bond returns are IRRs.

He makes the observation that risk measures vary by asset type. Equity risk is measured differently than bond risk. Many asset classes have no useful risk measures. How can assets with different risk measures be combined in portfolio with a single value for portfolio risk? Why use the E-V rule at all?

The answer is, variance is easy to calculate and the normal distribution is easy to understand. But that does not mean variance is an accurate or even useful measure of risk.

The efficient portfolio

Debt and equity assets are commonly combined in a single investment portfolio. Diversification results. As Markowitz put it, the E-V rule leads to efficient portfolios almost all of which are diversified.

Equity risk is measured by variance of returns, or standard deviation, and in terms of beta (beta;), the regression of an assets returns against the markets returns. Bond risk is measured differently, usually in reference to default and liquidity risk premia beyond the basic risk-free rate.

A Crash every several billion billion years

In practice, periodic returns present inconsistencies. Equity returns are calculated using changes in stock price (capital gains) and on the basis of any equity income. Bond returns (or yields) are the spreads above the risk-free rate. Like equity prices, bond yields change minute-by-minute throughout the day. So, too, do bond prices. But there is no calculating bond risk as a standard deviation. And which risk-free rate is the right one to use?

beta; is also problematic. What is the appropriate market to measure against the returns for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)? The Dow? NASDAQ 100? Samp;P 500? Samp;P 100? The Russell Indices? Microsoft has a different beta; for each. There is no beta; for debt.

Despite such problems, MPT asserts it is sensible to express risk as variance of return. As Fraser-Sampson points out, this measure doesnt work in a world where moves of 20 standard deviations (as in 1987) are not as uncommon as probability theory suggests. How uncommon is that? Mandelbrot wrote, The 1987 stock market crash was, according to (normal) models, something that could happen only once in several billion billion years.

So much for theory.

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1 in 4 people will do more of their Christmas shopping online this year

Two thirds of online shoppers plan to buy at least half of their Christmas gifts via the internet this year, reveals Citizens Advice.

Over a quarter said they will do more of their shopping online this festive season than they did last year. Just four per cent said that they dont plan to buy any Christmas shopping via the internet.

As shoppers get ready for the busiest retail weekend of the year, Citizens Advice is reminding people to be aware of their rights.

Earlier this year, new distance selling rules came into force to protect online shoppers from being stung by hidden costs, late delivery and rip-off charges. New findings, released by the national charity and consumer champion today, show some consumers are in the dark about some of the new rules. Three in four people didnt know that they could cancel an online order or return goods within 14 days to get a full refund, including delivery costs.

Citizens Advice consumer service helped with 1,456 problems with delivery, collection or repairs in December 2013 and 1,620 in January 2014, higher than any other month this year.

Citizens Advice is also urging shoppers to plan their finances in order to avoid a debt hangover in the New Year.

Based on a survey of more than 3,700 people with internet access from across the UK, the new research finds:

People who live in rural communities are most likely to be online shoppers, with 91 per cent regularly logging on to buy.

Three quarters of people living in rural areas feel aware of their online shopping rights, higher than in any other community.

Overall, 84 per cent of UK consumers who have access to the internet are online shoppers and 69 per cent said they know understand their online consumer rights.

People living in island communities are the least confident online shoppers. Only 45 per cent regularly shop online and just 59 per cent told Citizens Advice that they feel aware of their online rights.

Online shoppers are most likely to get their Christmas shopping delivered to a home address (91 per cent), although a third (30 per cent) will also be relying on Click and Collect during the Christmas period this year.

Preferences for delivery methods vary by age and 40 per cent of 25-34 year olds plan to make use of drop-off points.

Citizens Advice Chief Executive Gillian Guy said: Planning ahead now will make sure that your Christmas delivers. Late deliveries, faulty presents and unmanageable costs risk putting a dampener on the festive season. Make sure that you know your rights and have your budget in order before you part with your hard-earned cash.

A staggering ninety six per cent of people with internet access will shop online this Christmas. With so much money on the line retailers must do all they can to help people understand their rights. If something does go wrong, or you need advice on coping with the cost of Christmas then Citizens Advice is here to help.

The charity is also reminding people to plan their finances to avoid a Christmas debt hangover. Last Christmas, 24,000 people got help with debt from Citizens Advices online guide between 26 December and 2 January, a 41% increase on the year before. Twenty thousand people came into Citizens Advice for help with a consumer debt problem in January 2014.

Citizens Advice will be holding a Qamp;A on the Citizens Advice Facebook page between Monday 1st December and Wednesday 3rd, to answer any questions about shopping online and peoples consumer rights. You can check your online shopping rights at www.adviceguide.org.uk and from Monday 1 December have a look at #CABXmas on Twitter for Citizens Advices top tips for buying and sending gifts this Christmas.

If you need help sorting out a consumer problems this Christmas, contact the Citizens Advice consumer service on 03454 04 05 06.

Top Christmas tips:

Think about how much you can afford to spend and stick to your budget. With presents, food, travel and parties, Christmas costs can soon mount up so managing your money is key.

Always check the retailers terms and conditions of sale, and other important pre-contract information such as returns policies before you buy your Christmas gifts online. You can get more information from adviceguide.org.uk

Online retailers must tell you about delivery costs and whether you will have to pay for returning your gift before you place an order. Advice Guide can help you argue your case if you have delivery disputes with an online seller.

Presents ordered from outside the EU might be liable for customs duty, excise duty or import VAT. You can contact HMRC for more information.

Save money by sending items using Second Class. If you send 100 cards using Letter stamps this will save you pound;9, and if you use Large Letter stamps this will save you pound;20.

Leave yourself enough time to send your cards. The last posting dates for Second Class is Thursday 18 December and First Class is Saturday 20 December.

Use a cheque or postal order instead of sending cash and send jewellery, money, vouchers and valuables by an insured service such as Royal Mail Special Delivery, in order to claim compensation if your item is lost or damaged.

Get the best deal for sending your Christmas gifts by shopping around through your local Post Office, online parcel brokers or high street shops which offer parcel delivery services.

Ask for a free Certificate of Posting at the Post Office counter when you send important items. Remember to always keep your receipts for proof of value when filing a claim if it is lost in the post.

Check the pricing in proportion to guidelines before you stick on a stamp. If in doubt, check at your local Post Office or see the dimensions on their website.

If you are considering taking out a loan, shop around and compare the interest and charges before you borrow. Only take out a loan if you know you will be able to afford the repayments and make sure you are clear about the full cost what will happen if you cant pay it back.

When you buy an item online, over the phone or through a catalogue you can change your mind or send it back if it is faulty. From the day its delivered, you have a 14 day cooling off period where you can change your mind and send it back.

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$100000 cash abandoned at Calif. Burger King

He could have had it his way, but in the end, Altaf Chaus did the right thing.

The owner of a Burger King franchise in San Jose opened an abandoned bag at his fast-food eatery. And inside was a whopping pile of crisp $50 and $100 bills totaling $100,000.

The blue book bag had been sitting there for a while on Wednesday. Assistant manager Sahista Bakawla said shed wiped down the stores table tops several times and kept seeing the back pack. She figured someone would come back for it, she told KG0-TV.

But they never did. So she picked it up and told her boss about it.

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Hutcheson Medical Center Will File For Bankruptcy Protection

Hutcheson Medical Center in Fort Oglethorpe said that it would file for bankruptcy last week in an ongoing saga of the ailing hospital. Although they will be filing for bankruptcy, the hospital will continue in its day-to-day operations. The decision to file for bankruptcy protection is a move to help protect the hospital from being foreclosed upon by Erlanger, a Chattanooga-based hospital that is trying to recoup $20 million loaned to Hutcheson. The management is hopeful that bankruptcy will allow them to reorganize and be a much stronger organization. From the Chattanoogan:

Hutcheson officials said, In recent years many organizations, such as GM and Chrysler and Georgia-based companies including Delta, have been able to use the Chapter 11 reorganization process successfully as a vehicle to restructure their financial obligations while preserving jobs and continuing to serve the public.

“We fully expect Hutcheson to join that list of companies who have emerged from Chapter 11 reorganization even stronger than before,” said Mr. Jewell.

Hutchesons announcement came only hours prior to Governor Nathan Deals panel to discuss ailing hospitals in Georgia.

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Looking for affordable living with good schools? This Triangle metro ranks …

Two of the first questions that any real estate agent will tell you that a potential buyer asks when considering a new home purchase:

  1. What is the price? and,
  2. What are the schools like?

So, based on those two important factors that buyers consider when investing in a home, a recent RealtyTrac report shows the Raleigh-Cary market ranks among the best in the country.

When RealtyTrac compared schools test scores with the affordability of an average home, Raleigh had eight ZIP code areas that ranked among the most affordable areas in the country that also had good schools.

Raleigh trailed only Orlando, Florida, on the list. Orlando has nine ZIP codes classified as both affordable and having good schools. Wilmington also ranked high with five ZIP codes classified as affordable with good schools.

Rankings: The Triangles top high schools

Statewide, North Carolina has 66 affordable ZIP codes with good schools, a number that is second only to New Yorks 105 affordable ZIP codes with good schools.

By RealtyTracs calculations, an elementary school was classified as good if its test scores were at least one-third higher than its respective state average. School data is from each states department of education.

A ZIP code region was classified as affordable if the average price of a residential property required one-third or less of the median household income.

Nationally, that amounted to 489 ZIP codes that could be classified as both affordable and having good schools.

There was even one ZIP code region in the Triangle ranked among the 20 best in the country: The 27344 ZIP code that includes Siler City in southern Chatham County. It ranked at No. 18 in the country based on the high test scores of Chatham Charter school and Siler Citys affordability index of 15.1 percent, meaning that the average home mortgage payment is about 15 percent of the median income of its residents.

Among other Raleigh-area ZIP codes and schools that ranked among the highest in the country were:

  • 27592 – Willow Springs Elementary School in Willow Spring at No. 103;
  • 27616 – Casa Esperanza Montessori in Raleigh at No. 108;
  • 27502 – Olive Chapel Elementary School in Apex at No. 127;
  • 27540 – Holly Springs Elementary School in Holly Springs at No. 135; and
  • 27519 – Davis Drive Elementary School in Cary at No. 148.

Amanda Jones Hoyle covers commercial and residential real estate. Follow her on Twitter @TBJrealestate

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We can’t bag the cash from our unwanted clothes

In September you ran an item from someone who had been trying to get payment for 11 bin bags of clothes from cash-clothes.co.uk. I, too, have been chasing this company for two months.

I am owed about pound;25 and really need the money for Christmas. WM, Sutton Coldfield, Warwickshire

Thankfully, the company has now fast-tracked your payment. But we think it really needs to get its act together in terms of settling accounts before the New Year rush triggered by the annual great wardrobe clear-out and Christmas jumper heave-ho.

We welcome letters but cannot answer individually. Email us at consumer.champions@theguardian.com or write to Consumer Champions, Money, the Guardian, 90 York Way, London N1 9GU. Please include a daytime phone number

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Repair Bad Credit signs raise BBB concerns

Capital Credit Protection, a Florida company that has posted numerous Repair Bad Credit advertising signs along St. Louis streets, is headed by a man who appears to have had ties to a similar credit-repair operation that was shut down two years ago by a federal judge.

Better Business Bureau (BBB) is advising St. Louis area consumers to exercise caution when dealing with Capital Credit Protection (also known as Capital Credit Solutions) of Jacksonville, Fla.

Willie J. McKenzie, president of Capital Credit Protection, appears to have had business ties to Kevin Hargrave through a firm called Lexington Credit Services. Hargrave, of Florida, was found guilty of civil contempt in Jacksonville in November 2012. The Federal Trade Commission accused Hargrave, his wife, Latrese, and several of their companies of violating a court order to stop selling bogus credit-repair services.

BBB of Northeast Florida and the Southeast Atlantic describes Capital Credit Protection as a credit-repair firm. It has an F rating with BBB, the lowest possible.

A woman from Orlando, Fla., told BBB she contacted Capital Credit Protection in February after seeing several similar street signs in that city. She said the company promised her repeatedly that it would raise her credit score enough to allow her to purchase a car and a house. More than eight months and $500 later, she said, her credit score has not changed.

Theyve done absolutely nothing, she said.

The local signs, sometimes called bandit signs, began popping up last month along a stretch of Gravois Avenue on St. Louis South Side. Repair Bad Credit $250, the signs read.

The red and white signs include a toll-free phone number that is the same number listed on the website and Facebook pages of Capital Credit Protection and Capital Credit Solutions. Identical signs also have been seen recently in the Peoria, Ill., area.

BBB and the FTC note that no one can legally remove accurate and timely negative information from a credit report. Both say that anything a credit-repair company can do legally, a consumer can do for himself or herself, at little or no cost.

The rectangular red and white Repair Bad Credit signs of Capital Credit Protection are very similar in design to the red and white Erase Bad Credit street signs used extensively by BFS Empowerment Financial Services and other Florida businesses that were linked to Kevin and Latrese Hargrave.

One group of Erase Bad Credit signs erected in the Little Rock, Ark., area in 2011 included the website erasecredittoday.com. An investigator with the Arkansas attorney generals office noted in a court filing that the website was registered by Lexington Credit in Jacksonville, Fla. The investigator said that records for Lexington Credit showed Kevin Hargrave as the company contact and McKenzie as the company president.

The contempt order against the Hargraves, BFS Empowerment Financial Services, Help My Credit Now Credit Services and Kevtrese Enterprises, found that the defendants violated a 2010 permanent injunction barring them from using misleading advertising to promote or advertise credit-repair services. The order included payment of more than $6 million in penalties and restitution. McKenzie, Lexington Credit, Capital Credit Protection and Capital Credit Solutions were not named as defendants.

McKenzie registered Capital Credit Solutions with the Florida Department of State in August 2012. The companys most recent annual report, which was filed five months ago, lists McKenzie as president of the company.

One website for the company, capitalcreditsolutions.comcastbiz.net, says, Welcome to your road to credit redemption. It also states: The fastest and most efficient way to build your credit score is let us get to work for you!

On another website, capitalcreditprotection.com, the company says it has helped thousands of clients achieve an approvable credit score. The bottom line is – we get results.

The company requires that a $250 fee be paid within three days of signing a contract.

On its website, the company says that the fee covers access to the consumers credit report and you (sic) case analysis which will be givin (sic) to you before we process your payment. It says there is an additional monthly fee of $50.

Michelle Corey, BBB president and CEO, said consumers should be wary of paying Capital Credit Solutions or any company for work that they can do themselves.

Businesses like Capital Credit Solutions imply that they have some magic formula to get rid of bad credit and improve your credit score, Corey said. That simply is not the case.

A BBB employee posing as a potential customer called the number on the St. Louis area signs and asked for help improving his credit. A company representative said, We can definitely help with that. Youll see a significant improvement (in the consumers credit) within the first 45 days and we can definitely get rid of all the negative and derogatory requests or items from your credit report, and we can definitely help . . . by moving up on your credit score. He also promised to add 100 to 200 points to the callers credit score.

An investigator called the same number several days later, identifying himself as a BBB employee. At that time, a man identifying himself only as Ron, a manager, said the company would never promise to get rid of any negative information on a consumers credit report. We dont say those kinds of things, he said. You cant guarantee anything in credit report work.

The manager said the company operates in every state but Georgia and offers both credit repair assistance and credit counseling. He said the company has no connection to Hargrave or any of his companies, but did not elaborate. He said McKenzie was not available.

BBB offers the following advice to consumers who want to improve their credit scores:

o Review your credit report annually and report any errors. Federal law allows you to obtain a free copy of your credit report from each of the credit bureaus once every 12 months at www.annualcreditreport.com.

o If you find any mistakes on your credit report, contact each of the three credit reporting agencies to report the errors, and start the process to correct them.

o Pay your bills on time.

o Keep your credit card balance low.

o Limit your credit cards.

o Research a business and its owners carefully before paying any upfront fees. Check a companys BBB Business Review at bbb.org or by calling 314-645-3300.

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Labor union, Finance Ministry terminate talks over minimum wage

Negotiations between state officials and representatives of the powerful Histadrut labor union broke down Tuesday, only one day after the parties held their first meeting, as the two sides were unable to reach an agreement on potentially raising the low minimum wage. However, a meeting between the Histadrut and the Finance Ministry is scheduled for Wednesday to discuss the widespread use of temporary workers for cleaning and security services.

Last week, Histadrut chairman Avi Nissenkorn listed his grievances in a statement as “the disgrace of the minimum wage in Israel, the worrying spread of the phenomenon of contracted workers, and the contempt by the state in not implementing an order regarding the expansion of employing disabled people in the civil service.”

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instant cash loans for unemployed

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